The aviation industry is abuzz with talk of a looming global pilot shortage – and Europe is no exception. As air travel rebounds from the pandemic downturn, airlines and analysts are carefully watching whether the demand for pilots will outpace the supply of qualified aviators. In fact, recent forecasts warn that pilot demand will exceed supply in most regions by the mid-2020s. For those considering a career change into aviation, especially under the European EASA framework, this raises exciting questions: Will there be a pilot shortage in Europe, why might it happen, where will it hit hardest, and what does it mean for pilot careers? In this article, we’ll explore these issues in an accessible yet factual tone – giving prospective student pilots a clear picture of the road ahead and why now might be the perfect time to start flight training.
Will There Be a Pilot Shortage in Europe?
Europe’s airlines are cautiously optimistic yet concerned about a potential pilot shortfall in the coming years. Multiple industry forecasts suggest that Europe will likely face a pilot shortage toward the latter half of this decade, as the aviation sector recovers and grows. Boeing’s latest long-term outlook, for example, estimates that European carriers will need to hire about 122,000 new pilots between now and 2041 – roughly 6,000 pilots per year – to meet the demands of recovery and future growth. This is part of a global need for 2.1 million new aviation personnel (pilots, technicians, cabin crew) over 20 years, with Europe accounting for a significant share.
Currently, the situation in Europe has been relatively balanced, especially compared to regions like North America. In the early 2020s, Europe actually had a surplus of qualified pilots in the job market. Pilot unions noted that many licensed pilots were unemployed or underemployed (around 15% pilot unemployment in Europe as of late 2010s), partly due to the pandemic’s impact and structural training issues. However, this surplus is expected to flip into a shortage by the mid-2020s as air travel demand returns. An analysis by Oliver Wyman projects that Europe’s pilot supply will remain just about in equilibrium until around 2025, then a gap will emerge. By 2032, Europe could face a shortfall of roughly 19,000 pilots if no corrective actions are taken. In other words, within a decade Europe may move from having “enough” pilots to a scenario where airlines can’t hire pilots fast enough to crew all their flights.
It’s important to note that not everyone agrees on the severity of Europe’s looming pilot shortage. Some industry observers argue that the issue has been overstated in the past. A 2018 position paper by the European Cockpit Association famously argued “there is no pilot shortage” in Europe, pointing out that thousands of European pilots remain available – they’re just not always willing to work under the conditions offered. They highlighted how many newly minted pilots couldn’t find suitable jobs or left for other fields, suggesting a mismatch rather than a pure lack of pilots. So far, data shows Europe’s pilot job market has been roughly in balance (or even slightly oversupplied) through the early 2020s. But looking forward, the consensus of major airline forecasts is that a real pilot shortage is on the horizon in Europe as travel demand surges. For aspiring pilots, this could translate into higher chances of landing a job in the coming years – a welcome change from the pre-pandemic glut of applicants.
Why Might There Be a Pilot Shortage?
Several converging factors are setting the stage for a potential pilot shortage in Europe:
Wave of Pilot Retirements:
Europe’s pilot workforce has a significant cohort nearing retirement age. Under EASA rules, airline pilots must retire from commercial flying by age 65. A large number of senior pilots are expected to hit this mandatory retirement age in the next few years, especially since many baby-boomer generation pilots are now in their late 50s or early 60s. This “silver tsunami” of retirements means airlines will lose thousands of experienced captains. For instance, industry reports note a large share of European pilots approaching retirement with not enough new pilots to replace them. Some carriers even offered early retirement packages during the COVID-19 slump, accelerating the loss of veteran pilots. Replacing those retirees is a challenge when it takes around 18-24 months to train a new commercial pilot from zero to airline-ready. The timing of these retirements is a key reason a shortage could emerge just as traffic recovers.
Post-Pandemic Travel Rebound:
After the sharp downturn in 2020-2021, air travel in Europe is climbing back fast, and forecasts show continued growth. Passenger traffic in 2023 has approached or exceeded 2019 levels in many European markets. Eurocontrol’s latest forecast expects European flight activity to return to 100% of pre-pandemic levels by 2025 and then keep rising ~2% per year through 2030. In simpler terms, airlines are adding back flights and even expanding into new routes. Higher demand for air travel = more planes in the sky = more pilots needed to fly them. Boeing’s outlook cites the “recovery of aviation and long-term growth” as driving an unprecedented need for new pilots in Europe. This rapid rebound, especially in leisure travel, caught some airlines off-guard – leading to a scramble to rehire or train crews. If demand continues to grow as projected (barring any new downturns), airlines will need to staff not just restored operations but also future expansion.
Training Pipeline Bottlenecks:
Training new pilots is not something that can be ramped up overnight. During the pandemic, many flight schools and airline cadet programs in Europe scaled back or paused operations. Now, as they try to scale up again, they face capacity limits – from a shortage of flight instructors to limited simulator slots and long wait times for skills tests. Industry experts note that the number of new pilots Europe can train each year falls far short of the number needed to meet rising demand. One major flight academy pointed out that Europe (including the UK) needs about 5,800 new pilots per year (roughly 16 per day) to meet demand, yet Europe’s flight schools currently produce only about 25% of that annually. This training gap is a huge contributor to a potential shortage. Even though enrollments are now up, it will take time for those students to graduate and accumulate enough flying hours to work as airline first officers. In the interim, airlines might find themselves with more planes available than qualified pilots to operate them – a classic bottleneck.
High Training Costs Deter New Entrants:
Becoming an airline pilot in Europe typically requires a significant financial investment from the student. A full EASA commercial pilot training program (from zero through Airline Transport Pilot License with ratings) can cost anywhere from €70,000 to over €120,000. This steep cost is a major barrier for many aspiring aviators. During economic downturns, fewer people are willing to take on such debt when job prospects seem uncertain. Even now, with better prospects, the sticker shock limits the pool of candidates to those who either have strong financial backing or secure airline sponsorship. The result is that not enough young Europeans enter pilot training to replace those retiring. Some airlines and training organizations recognize this and are responding by offering cadet programs with financial assistance or even fully funded training for select candidates – aiming to attract a more diverse range of talent. These sponsorships help, but they are not yet widespread enough to fill the gap. Without broad financial support, the cost factor continues to constrain the supply of new pilots in Europe.
Demographic and Career Shifts:
Beyond retirements, fewer young people in Europe historically have seen piloting as an accessible career, partly due to the cost and lengthy training path. There’s also less of a military-to-civilian pilot pipeline compared to regions like the U.S. (Europe’s smaller militaries produce fewer pilot graduates, and many military pilots stay in service or go to airline jobs outside Europe). Additionally, some licensed European pilots choose to work abroad for higher pay or better contracts – for example, many have taken jobs with Middle Eastern or Asian carriers over the years. This brain drain means those pilots aren’t available to European airlines unless they return. Competition from other aviation sectors also plays a role. Cargo airlines, business jet operators, and even burgeoning urban air mobility firms all need pilots. According to industry sources, pilots with the right qualifications are in high demand not just by passenger airlines but also by cargo carriers and even the military (which has its own pilot shortages). All these factors can pull potential pilots away from European commercial airlines, contributing to a scarcity in that segment.
Regulatory and Operational Challenges:
The aviation regulatory framework can sometimes inadvertently contribute to pilot scarcity. For instance, strict flight time limitations and safety regulations (which are crucial for safety) require airlines to have a larger pool of pilots to cover schedules without exceeding duty limits. If airlines struggle to recruit, meeting these rules can force flight cancellations or reduced schedules. Additionally, Europe’s licensing standards under EASA are high – again, important for safety – but it means pilots trained elsewhere often need conversions or additional training to work in Europe, limiting quick fixes via foreign recruitment. Some have speculated that calls of “pilot shortage” are partly an attempt by industry players to push for regulatory changes (like easing certain training requirements or crew duty rules). While EASA shows no sign of lowering standards (for example, it has maintained the age-65 retirement rule, deciding not to raise it), any regulatory shifts will be carefully balanced against safety. In the meantime, the operational reality is that training a pilot to EASA’s requirements takes time and rigorous effort, so short-term shortages can’t be solved by simply hiring laid-off pilots from other regions without proper licensing. This is why a proactive approach – investing in training capacity and smoothing the path for new pilots – is needed to prevent a shortage.
In summary, Europe could face a pilot shortage due to a perfect storm of many veteran pilots aging out, surging travel demand after COVID-19, an insufficient pipeline of new pilots (constrained by training capacity and cost), and competition for talent. Each factor alone might be manageable, but together they put Europe on a trajectory where pilot demand may outstrip supply within a few years, unless mitigating actions are taken.
Where Will the Shortage Be Most Pronounced in Europe?
If a pilot shortage does hit Europe, will it be uniform across the continent or more acute in certain countries? Industry data suggests that some regions in Europe are likely to feel the crunch more than others, based on how air travel is growing and local training resources:
High-Growth Regions (Southern & Eastern Europe):
According to Eurocontrol, southern and southeastern European countries are experiencing the fastest air traffic recovery in 2023-24, outpacing the rest of Europe.Tourist hotspots around the Mediterranean (Spain, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, etc.) and emerging markets in Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania, the Baltics) are seeing robust growth in flights. Low-cost carriers and holiday airlines are aggressively expanding in these regions to capture leisure travel demand. For example, Ryanair and Wizz Air – two of Europe’s largest low-cost airlines – have been deploying more aircraft into bases in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, opening dozens of new routes. This expansion translates into a need for more pilots concentrated in those areas. An aviation training group CEO noted that Europe and Asia-Pacific are expected to retain very high pilot demand numbers, even as other regions moderate, with Europe looking at a gap of about 141,000 pilots by 2043 in recent predictions. We can infer that a sizable chunk of that demand will be in fast-growing markets where airlines are adding capacity the quickest. Countries like Spain and Greece (with booming summer travel), or Poland and Hungary (with rapidly growing carriers) could find themselves with more job openings for pilots than local candidates to fill them.
Major Airline Hub Countries:
Europe’s aviation powerhouses – such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Italy – might also face shortages, primarily due to retirements and fleet growth in their flagship airlines. These countries host legacy carriers (Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, ITA Airways, etc.) that are rebounding and expanding their long-haul fleets, alongside strong low-cost and regional carriers. The demand for pilots in these markets is high, but traditionally they also attract many pilots from across Europe due to higher salaries and well-established cadet programs. Even so, as large numbers of senior captains retire from the big airlines in Western Europe, those carriers will be hiring at a steady clip to replace them – and possibly hiring internationally if local supply runs thin. We might see the shortage manifest as longer recruitment times or companies poaching pilots from each other in these competitive markets. The UK is a separate case (post-Brexit, with its own system), but similar dynamics apply there; however, focusing on EASA countries, the hub markets will likely remain magnets for pilot talent and could mitigate shortages by drawing pilots from other parts of Europe. That said, if every major airline is hiring simultaneously, even these countries could feel a pinch.
Regional and Charter Airlines:
Interestingly, shortages might be most acute for smaller carriers and certain niches. Regional airlines (those flying short-hop routes or operating smaller turboprops) often have thinner profit margins and historically lower pay. If a pilot shortage intensifies, newly qualified pilots might skip regionals and go straight to better-paying jobs at major airlines or low-cost carriers, leaving regionals struggling to recruit. This pattern has been seen in North America, and Europe could face a similar challenge. Charter operators and business jet companies in Europe are already reporting difficulty finding experienced pilots, as many have been scooped up by airlines ramping up operations. Thus, the shortage may not only be geographic but also segmented by airline type – with less prominent airlines in any country having a harder time attracting pilots if larger airlines are hiring en masse.
Countries with Limited Training Infrastructure:
Another way to pinpoint hot spots is to look at nations that rely heavily on importing pilots versus training their own. Some European countries have extensive pilot training academies (Spain, France, Germany, and the Nordic countries have well-known schools), while others produce very few pilots domestically. For instance, if a booming airline is based in a country without a big flight school pipeline, it will need to recruit from abroad. Take Hungary and Poland – Wizz Air (Hungary-based) and LOT Polish Airlines are expanding, but local training capacity is limited, so they will be hiring pilots from across Europe. These carriers might face shortages at bases that aren’t traditionally top-of-mind for expat pilots. Scandinavia also went through pilot labor shortages after COVID, exacerbated by some airlines going bankrupt and others (like Norwegian Air Shuttle) downsizing then re-growing. As Norwegian and new startups (e.g. Norse Atlantic) expand again, Norway and its neighbors could see tight pilot supply locally. In contrast, countries like France or Spain, which train many pilots (and have military pilot feeder streams), might cope better internally – though they’ll still need large numbers of new trainees to meet total demand.
Overall, the pilot shortage in Europe is expected to be a broad issue affecting many countries, but it will likely be most pronounced in regions with the strongest traffic growth and those served by rapidly expanding carriers. A survey of airline hiring plans in late 2023 shows that many European airlines – from major flag carriers to low-cost and charter operators – are all planning to hire pilots aggressively in the next few years. For example, airlines like Wizz Air, Avion Express, KlasJet, and Air Belgium (among others) have active job postings for pilots, reflecting a continent-wide hiring push. This surge in demand bodes well for pilot job availability virtually everywhere in Europe. But it also means aspiring pilots might have flexibility in choosing where to work; if one region is saturated with pilots, another region might readily welcome them. Prospective pilots should keep an eye on high-growth markets – those could offer some of the quickest pathways from training to the cockpit.
How Is Air Travel Expected to Grow in Europe?
A key driver behind the pilot demand is how air travel itself is growing (or contracting). In Europe’s case, the long-term outlook for air travel is generally positive, though with some nuances post-pandemic:
Post-Pandemic Recovery:
European air travel took a severe hit in 2020, but since 2022 it has been on a solid recovery trajectory. By 2023, many European airlines reported passenger numbers nearing 2019 levels, and summer travel in particular saw record bookings in some leisure markets. Airline traffic data shows Europe about 95-100% recovered by late 2024 in most regions. Eurocontrol (which monitors European air traffic) estimates about 10.7 million flights in 2024, which is 96% of 2019 levels, and forecasts that 2025 will finally exceed the pre-COVID peak in total flights. The consensus is that Europe’s air travel demand has proven resilient – people are eager to fly again for vacations, family visits, and business, despite economic uncertainties.
Steady Long-Term Growth:
Looking beyond the recovery, Europe is expected to see modest but steady growth in air travel through the 2020s. Forecasts by Eurocontrol and IATA suggest an average growth rate of around 2-3% per year in passenger traffic or flights in Europe over the next decade. That might sound small, but it compounds significantly: each year’s growth adds more flights and requires more crew. By 2030, the number of flights in European airspace could reach ~12 million annually (up from ~11 million in 2019). And if we look at passenger numbers (which also reflect larger aircraft and higher load factors), the growth could be even more pronounced. Key factors fueling this include rising tourism travel within Europe, increasing connectivity in Eastern Europe, and population growth in some areas. Of course, high growth is not uniform – some years might be slower if there’s an economic dip, and certain countries (e.g. those with stagnating economies or aggressive climate policies) might see flatter aviation demand. But overall, the trend line for European air travel is upward, contributing to sustained pilot hiring needs.
Airline Fleet Expansion Plans:
The optimism in demand is reflected in airlines’ fleet plans. European carriers have been placing large orders for new aircraft as they anticipate future growth and also aim to replace older jets with more fuel-efficient models. For instance, major low-cost carriers like Ryanair have over 150 new Boeing 737 MAX jets on order to be delivered in the next few years, and Wizz Air has well over 200 Airbus A320neo family jets on order into the late 2020s. Even legacy carriers (Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Iberia, etc.) have orders for new long-haul aircraft (Airbus A350s, Boeing 787s, etc.) and additional short-haul planes. Each new aircraft added to an airline’s fleet typically means hiring roughly 10–12 new pilots (to cover rotations). Deliveries that were deferred during the pandemic are now arriving, and airlines are gearing up to staff them. Boeing projects the worldwide commercial airplane fleet will nearly double by 2041 (to ~47,000 aircraft), and Europe’s share of that will be significant. The more planes airlines plan to fly, the more pilots will be in demand. Fleet growth in Europe also ties into replacement – as older pilots retire, often older planes are retired too and new planes come with new crews. A sharp uptick in new aircraft deliveries in Europe around 2025-2030 is expected to further boost pilot hiring requirements.
Economic and Tourism Factors:
Europe’s air travel growth does depend on economic health and other external factors. If Europe’s economy remains reasonably strong, businesses will continue flying and consumers will budget for travel. Notably, the tourism sector in Europe is a major driver – low-cost travel allows many intra-European trips, and Europe is a top global destination for overseas tourists as well. As long as GDP and income levels trend upward, and visa/travel policies remain favorable, air travel is forecast to grow. Even factors like the expansion of the EU or the easing of travel restrictions within Europe (e.g. Balkan countries integrating) can unlock new demand. Conversely, high fuel prices or environmental taxes could raise ticket prices, potentially dampening demand slightly – but so far the elasticity of demand has been low (fliers have accepted minor price increases). On balance, industry forecasts (Boeing, Airbus, IATA) all foresee continued passenger traffic growth in Europe over the next 20 years, though slower than Asia or the Middle East. For example, Airbus’s Global Services Forecast noted Europe will account for about 20% of global new pilot demand through 2041, second only to Asia-Pacific, reflecting steady growth in the region.
Potential Ups and Downs:
Of course, forecasts are not guarantees. Europe’s aviation market could face headwinds – such as economic recessions, pandemics, or geopolitical events – that temporarily reduce air travel (as we saw in 2020). Some in the industry also wonder about the impact of climate change initiatives: Europe is pushing high-speed rail and proposing taxes on short flights to cut emissions. If many short-haul flights are replaced by trains in the far future, that could slow pilot demand growth. However, high-speed rail is unlikely to replace a significant portion of flights beyond a few key city pairs. For now, the outlook through the 2020s is that air travel will keep growing at a manageable pace, and airlines are planning accordingly. Prospective pilots can take heart that Europe’s recovery has been strong and airlines are investing in future growth, which means a continued need for crew to fly the expanding schedules.
How Would a Pilot Shortage Affect Pilot Terms and Conditions?
One of the most exciting prospects for aspiring pilots in a shortage scenario is the improvement in job terms that tends to come with high demand. If airlines truly find themselves competing for a limited pool of qualified pilots, pilots gain leverage, and companies often respond with better pay, perks, and opportunities to attract and retain talent. Here’s how a European pilot shortage could affect pilot working conditions:
Rising Salaries:
Perhaps the most immediate effect would be upward pressure on pilot salaries. We’re already seeing this begin in Europe. According to recent industry analysis, pilot pay in Europe has jumped significantly as airlines ramp up hiring. In 2024 alone, median salaries for First Officers in Europe rose by about 27.5%, and for Captains by nearly 50% compared to the previous year. These are astounding increases, reflecting airlines’ urgency to secure experienced crew. While those numbers may partly include catch-up raises after pandemic cuts, they also signal a trend: airlines know they must offer more competitive pay to fill their cockpits. In the past, European pilot salaries (especially at low-cost carriers or smaller airlines) were relatively lower than, say, the US or Middle East. A shortage flips that script as companies bid up wages. Aspiring pilots can expect that a career in aviation will become more financially rewarding if the shortage intensifies – starting salaries might increase, and the gap between what a budget airline pays versus a major carrier might narrow as everyone’s forced to improve compensation. We’ve also seen big pilot signing bonuses and retention bonuses become common in regions like North America due to shortages; similar incentives could cross over into Europe. Airlines might, for example, offer a €10,000–€20,000 signing bonus for new hires with certain qualifications, or longevity bonuses for staying past a few years.
Better Work-Life Balance and Schedules:
When pilots are in short supply, airlines have more incentive to keep their current pilots happy (so they don’t leave) and to attract new ones with quality-of-life benefits. This could mean improved rosters, more predictable schedules, and adequate rest. Some European low-cost carriers have already touted attractive schedules (for instance, one offers a fixed 5 days on/4 days off roster to lure pilots). In a shortage scenario, we can expect more airlines to negotiate or voluntarily implement limits on the more grueling aspects of the job – e.g., fewer back-to-back early morning duties, or guaranteeing consecutive days off. Additionally, base assignments could become more flexible. If pilots have options, an airline might allow them to choose a home base or transfer more easily to a preferred location as a perk. Pilots may also gain more say in bidding for desirable flights or monthly schedules. Essentially, the work conditions could shift to be more pilot-centric: acknowledging that to both recruit and retain crew, the job needs to be appealing not just in pay but in lifestyle. Europe’s strong pilot unions (in many countries) will undoubtedly use any shortage as leverage to bargain for better contracts covering working hours, sick leave, vacation, and more – and airlines will be more inclined to compromise if they’re worried about losing pilots.
Improved Job Security:
During downturns, pilots often worry about furloughs or layoffs (as happened in 2020). But if there’s a persistent shortage, job security for pilots increases. Airlines will be very reluctant to let pilots go, even in a mild slowdown, knowing how hard it would be to hire them back later. We could see more pilots on permanent contracts rather than precarious temporary or freelance arrangements. In fact, some European low-cost airlines that previously relied on contractor pilots via third-party agencies have started offering direct employment to ensure loyalty. A shortage might also push airlines to retain older pilots longer (up to age 65) instead of encouraging early retirement at, say, 60. They might even lobby for extensions in retirement age if safe to do so (though EASA currently sticks with 65). For a new pilot entering the field, the prospect of a long, stable career improves when every airline is trying to hold on to you. The traditional last-in-first-out layoff approach might soften if last-in pilots are hard to replace. In short, pilots may enjoy a greater sense of stability in their career, even in the cyclical airline industry, as long as the demand outpaces supply.
More Training and Advancement Opportunities:
Another positive effect could be the expansion of training and mentoring programs. Airlines facing a shortage often invest in growing their own talent. Cadet programs and sponsorships are likely to become more common. We’re already seeing airlines like Lufthansa, Air France, and KLM reopen or enlarge their ab initio cadet academies. Some carriers (and even national governments) might offer loan guarantees or scholarships to help trainees with the high cost, recognizing that lowering the financial barrier brings in more pilots. Additionally, once you’re in an airline, a shortage can accelerate career progression. It’s conceivable that the time to upgrade from First Officer to Captain will shorten because airlines need captains to replace retirees. In some European airlines, it traditionally can take 10-15 years of seniority to become a captain on a short-haul fleet; if many captains retire and expansion continues, ambitious and skilled pilots might move up in half that time. Faster upgrades and abundant job openings also mean a pilot can, if desired, move to a larger airline or a wide-body aircraft more quickly. Essentially, the career ladder becomes less steep when every qualified pilot is a hot commodity.
Attention to Pilot Well-Being:
With the spotlight on retaining pilots, expect improved focus on things like pilot healthcare, fatigue management, and general well-being. European regulations already mandate strict rest periods, but airlines might add their own measures – e.g., improved healthcare plans, mental health resources, or retention of pilots who go on leave (parental leave, etc.). The goal for airlines will be to reduce attrition. Europe has seen cases of pilots leaving due to burnout or dissatisfaction; a shortage environment pressures airlines to proactively address those issues so pilots stay longer. For example, an airline might limit scheduling max hours well below regulatory caps to ensure pilots aren’t overworked, or provide more simulators for extra training so pilots feel confident and less stressed on the job. All these softer aspects of the job could see enhancements in a bid to make piloting in Europe more attractive and sustainable as a long-term career.
Of course, conditions can vary by airline – the top-tier legacy airlines already have relatively good pay and contracts, so the biggest changes might be seen at the low-cost and regional airlines improving their packages. The bottom line for an aspiring pilot is that a shortage would tilt the labor market in your favor. We’re effectively seeing a seller’s market for pilots start to form. For instance, European pilot recruitment ads in 2023 are highlighting perks like never before, and many airlines are hiring with minimum entry hours lower than in the past due to the need for crew. This is a stark contrast to a decade ago when pilots sometimes had to pay for their own type rating or accept poor terms just to get a foot in the door. If the shortage becomes reality, those days (at least temporarily) fade, and being a pilot comes with not only the dream of flying but also strong bargaining power for quality employment.
Is Now a Good Time to Start Flight Training?
Given all the signs pointing to increased pilot hiring in Europe, prospective student pilots are asking the million-euro question: Should I start my flight training now to take advantage of these trends? The answer, based on industry outlook and timing, leans strongly toward “Yes – now is an excellent time to begin training,” albeit with the usual caveats.
Timing is critical in the aviation career. Training to become an airline pilot typically takes about 18-24 months for an ab-initio student to earn their commercial licenses and ratings, plus additional time (often 1-2 years) to build flying experience or complete a specific airline cadet program. That means someone starting today in 2025 might not be airline-ready until around 2027 or 2028. Coincidentally, many forecasts predict that Europe’s pilot shortage (if it materializes) will hit its stride in the second half of the 2020s. By the time a new student now has their license and the required flight hours, airlines could be in dire need of pilots – which is perfect timing for job opportunities. It’s a bit like planting a tree before the rainy season; you want to qualify just as the big hiring wave arrives. Industry experts have noted that the shortage, while mild now, is expected to gain momentum by 2025 and beyond, so aligning your entry into the job market with that upswing can give you a major advantage.
Another reason now is a good moment: airlines and flight schools are actively encouraging new entrants. They see the writing on the wall regarding potential shortages and are revamping pilot training pathways to attract talent. Aspiring pilots in Europe today will find more support than those a few years ago. For example, major European carriers have reopened cadet schemes that had been closed during COVID, and some are even offering job guarantees upon successful completion of training. There are also new financing options emerging – such as loans with deferred repayment (once you’re employed as a pilot) or partial sponsorships. All of this reduces the risk and burden on a student pilot. Contrast this with waiting a few years: if you delay training, you might miss the peak hiring window or find that airlines have already filled many junior roles. Starting now positions you to be among the pool of fresh pilots ready to be scooped up. An executive at a leading flight academy put it this way: there’s an “unbelievable opportunity to land a First Officer job in the future for those starting pilot training now.”. In other words, the door is open today in a way it hasn’t been for quite some time.
“There's an unbelievable opportunity to land a First Officer job in the future for those starting pilot training now.”
That said, a balanced perspective is important. The airline industry is famously cyclical – it experiences booms and busts. While the current indicators are good, prospective pilots should always go in with eyes open. Training is expensive and challenging, and not everyone who starts will finish or land their dream airline job immediately. It’s wise to ensure you have the passion and commitment for flying, and perhaps a backup plan or at least financial contingency, given the investment. However, if flying is truly your calling, the conditions unfolding now are about as favorable as one could hope for. During the 2020 downturn, many pilots in training were left anxious about their prospects. In 2023 and beyond, the narrative has flipped: airlines are concerned about not having enough pilots. This swing in demand gives newcomers a much clearer runway.
By starting training now, you also have the benefit of being ready for the next hiring boom that many expect around 2026-2028. Boeing’s forecast and others imply a big wave of retirements and fleet growth in that period, which will likely lead to hiring frenzies at multiple airlines simultaneously. Historically, airline hiring tends to happen in waves – and those who are qualified at the leading edge of a wave can pick and choose among the best offers. Those who come late may still find jobs but perhaps with less choice or in slower hiring conditions. As one more consideration, experience building opportunities are returning – e.g., flight instructor jobs, charter flying, etc., which were scarce during COVID. Starting now, you can build your flight hours in an improving market, rather than trying to do so when everyone is scrambling.
In summary, now is a strategically good time to embark on flight training in Europe. You would be aligning your career pipeline with a period of anticipated high demand. Europe’s aviation sector is on a rebound and growth path, and by the time you earn your wings, airlines will likely be welcoming new pilots with open arms. To maximize your chances, stay informed about airline cadet programs or mentorship schemes, keep an eye on industry hiring news, and be flexible about where you might fly (pan-European mobility can broaden your options). With determination and timing on your side, you could transition from student pilot to airline First Officer just as Europe really starts feeling the need for new cockpit crew. As the saying goes, “the best time to start was yesterday; the next best time is today.” For aspiring pilots eyeing the European skies, it truly feels like the dawn of a new opportunity.
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